Biodiversity and Conservation

Italy, one of Europe's most biodiverse countries, is expected to undergo landscape-wide nature recovery thanks to the EU Nature Restoration Regulation. National red lists represent critical instruments for informing conservation strategies at finer geographic resolutions and prioritizing taxa of national importance; yet the taxonomic completeness of Italian red lists remains unquantified in relation to national biodiversity. Equally, no systematic evaluation has been conducted on the representation of threatened and endemic Italian taxa within European and international conservation directives and treaties. We present the first comprehensive review of threat status and policy inclusion of Italian biodiversity, encompassing animals, plants, fungi, lichens, and algae. We cross-referenced national species checklists with Italian, European, Mediterranean, and global IUCN red lists, alongside policy annexes from the Birds and Habitats Directives, the Bern and Barcelona Conventions, and CITES. Our dataset comprised 76,845 taxa, of which 8,389 are endemic; yet red list assessments exist for only 10% of this total (7,349 taxa, including 1,700 endemics). Conservation policy coverage is even more restrictive: only 1,346 taxa are listed under at least one legislative instrument, with only half of these classified as threatened. This constitutes a compounding double bottleneck with most of the Italian biodiversity remaining both unassessed and unprotected and systematically biasing conservation policy toward an unrepresentative fraction of national biodiversity. We recommend accelerated national assessments and urgent establishment of a national biodiversity priority list founded on transparent prioritization protocols. This would complement ecosystem-based interventions mandated by the Nature Restoration Regulation while correcting for vertebrate-centred biases.

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is a dominant driver of biodiversity loss, yet its long-term role in restructuring species distribution remains poorly understood due to limited historical baselines and the scarcity of long-term analyses across multiple ecological transition zones. Here, we investigate nearly two centuries of land-use change across a biogeographically diverse region to evaluate how landscape transformation has reshaped vertebrate distribution range dynamics, and whether ecoregional context, habitat specialization, and taxonomic identity better explain these patterns than recent landscape change alone. Using Texas, a biogeographic crossroads with diverse ecoregional zones and a long history of intensive land-use, we quantify distributional changes in 100 native vertebrate species (mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians), using Vernon Baileys late nineteenth-century surveys as a historical benchmark. We integrated multi-temporal LULC datasets with spatial and multivariate analyses to assess how habitat change, species traits, and regional context relate to patterns of range expansion, contraction, and redistribution. We show that Texas has undergone non-linear landscape transformations characterized by early agricultural expansion followed by cropland abandonment, shrubland encroachment, and rapid urbanization. Range contractions were most pronounced among amphibians, reptiles, and habitat specialists, whereas generalist species and many birds exhibited greater range stability or expansion. Across taxa, primary habitat, vertebrate class, and ecoregional context emerged as the strongest predictors of distributional change, underscoring the importance of historical and environmental context over simple measures of habitat loss and fragmentation. These results indicate that while long-term LULC change establishes the underlying landscape template, species responses are structured by ecological context, including habitat affinity, taxonomic traits, and regional environmental gradients. By linking historical landscape trajectories to contemporary biodiversity patterns, this study provides a transferable framework for investigating how land-use legacies influence species distributions and community reassembly in heterogeneous human-dominated landscapes, highlighting the importance of adaptive capacity and connectivity for conservation planning.

Aims: Species' distributions are determined by the interplay between ecological niche and dispersal ability, constrained by biogeographical barriers. Bald-headed uakaris (Cacajao spp.) are highly specialized primates often associated with seasonally flooded forests. In this study, we used ecological niche models to assess changes in habitat suitability and geographic distribution of uakari species under future scenarios. Location: Western Amazonia. Methods: We integrated ecological niche models, current deforestation data, and dispersal ability to estimate habitat suitability under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very high (SSP5-8.5) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results: Our models project shifts in suitable conditions for all species. Three of the five species are projected to experience substantial reductions ([≥]62%) in suitable habitat conditions within their current ranges by 2050 under both future scenarios. Across the western Amazonia, up to 219,189 km2 and 211,276 km2 of land are projected to be unsuitable within the uakari ranges under the intermediate and very high emissions scenarios, respectively. This is particularly relevant for C. calvus, C. rubicundus, and C. ucayalii. At the species level, the uakaris may lose between 343 km2 and 84,531 km2 of their ranges in the intermediate scenario and 858 km2 and 76,216 km2 in the very high scenario. Shifts in suitability due to climate change are expected to vary from 6 to 191 km in the intermediate scenario and from 5 to 168 km in the very high scenario. Furthermore, the uakaris may lose between 0.5% and 8% of their current ranges due to deforestation in all scenarios. Main conclusions: Our findings reveal a high sensitivity of the uakaris to climate change impacts. It is projected that all species may experience contractions in the suitable areas and spatial suitability within their ranges by 2050, underscoring climate change as a relevant threat to these taxa.

Connectivity is critical to sustaining endangered carnivores in speciose yet fragmented landscapes such as in the global south. Corridors to mitigate fragmentation are designed based on charismatic species or habitat-based approaches, but their multispecies effectiveness for maintaining functional connectivity remains poorly tested. We combined landscape genetic analyses across five sympatric carnivores - Panthera tigris, Panthera pardus, Prionailurus viverrinus, Felis chaus, and Melursus ursinus, to evaluate how landscape features shape functional connectivity in a globally important felid landscape. We then assessed the efficiency of existing tiger corridors and single-species surrogates for maintaining multispecies functional connectivity. Species exhibited contrasting responses to landscape variables, producing distinct resistance surfaces and connectivity corridors. Spatial similarity of connectivity between species pairs was highly variable (r = 0.14-0.93), but no single species effectively captured connectivity patterns of the broader carnivore community (maximum mean overlap of <0.7 across species). Moreover, genetically optimized corridors were at least 70% more efficient in capturing connectivity compared to existing tiger corridors, demonstrating mismatches between structural and functional connectivity. Our results highlight limitations of surrogate-based corridor planning and demonstrate that integrating multispecies functional connectivity can substantially improve conservation planning in human-dominated landscapes.

The biodiversity crisis is exacerbated by persistent gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and conservation knowledge. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of Linnean, Wallacean, and conservation shortfalls in Rivulidae (Cyprinodontiformes), one of the most diverse families of Neotropical freshwater fishes. To this end, an extensive dataset was compiled, comprising 494 valid species, 51 synonyms, 3,419 occurrence records, and information on life cycle, distribution, and conservation status. The Linnean shortfall remains open: after 1975, the rate of species description increased sharply, and estimates indicate that 103 species remain undescribed (95% CI: 53-212). The year of species description was influenced by detectability and accessibility factors, with larger species, more widely distributed species, and species occurring in more densely populated areas being described earlier. The Wallacean shortfall was broad and spatially uneven: only 5.34% of the region was considered adequately sampled. The conservation shortfall was also substantial: 179 species are threatened with extinction, 69 species remain Not Evaluated, and 62 are Data Deficient. The mean time between taxonomic description and first IUCN extinction-risk assessment was 25.7 years. Moreover, 59.9% of species have no records within protected areas, including 69.3% of threatened species. These findings synthesize an urgent challenge: biodiversity knowledge and conservation shortfalls must be overcome simultaneously to protect species that are still being discovered, remain poorly documented spatially, and are restricted to habitats under intense anthropogenic pressure. The conservation of Rivulidae cannot wait for complete knowledge; action amid uncertainty is necessary to prevent both known and unknown species from disappearing.

O_LIIslands are priority areas for the study and conservation of biodiversity, as they frequently harbour distinct lineages. Yet they are particularly threatened by the global change. In the frame of an accelerated biodiversity crisis, many insular species risk disappearing before they are even discovered. C_LIO_LIFireflies, despite their ecological and cultural significance, remain poorly investigated, especially in temperate regions, where they have shown marked decline over the last decades. C_LIO_LIWe investigated firefly diversity across a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot by genotyping 114 fireflies of the genus Luciola from 29 locations across the Tuscan Archipelago and the adjacent Italian peninsula and applied phylogenetic and species delimitation methods to characterise genetic differentiation and its geographic structure. C_LIO_LIWe found an unexpectedly high level of genetic differentiation in this area. Phylogenetic inference recovered six deeply divergent and geographically structured mitochondrial lineages: three restricted to Elba Island and three to the Italian Peninsula. Genetic divergence among these lineages ranged from 1.97% to 4.58%, values comparable to or exceeding those typically observed among distinct species. Accordingly, species delimitation methods consistently supported their status as distinct species. C_LIO_LIThe coexistence of three divergent lineages on Elba Island suggests a biogeographic scenario characterised by ancient island colonisations and possible in situ diversification. These findings reveal a previously unrecognised depth of evolutionary diversity in Italian fireflies and identify the Tuscan Archipelago as a priority area for future research on firefly evolution and conservation, emphasizing that fireflies are a major gap in our knowledge of insect biodiversity in Europe. C_LI

AimBiodiversity-rich regions often lack the scientific infrastructure needed to document and curate their own biodiversity, creating inequalities in access to taxonomic reference material. We investigated how biological, institutional, and geopolitical factors shape the retention, extraction, and appropriation of reptile holotypes, the name-bearing specimens upon which species descriptions are based. LocationGlobal. TaxonReptiles. MethodsWe compiled a historical dataset of reptile holotype origins and destinations spanning 1758-2024 to reconstruct long-term patterns of retention and international specimen flows. We then quantified species-level holotype retention, holotype flows between country pairs, and country-level patterns of retention, appropriation, and network centrality for the period 1990-2024, and used generalised linear mixed models to assess the biological, institutional, and geopolitical determinants of these contemporary circulation processes. ResultsAlthough nearly 90% of reptile species described originated in the Global South, less than a quarter of their holotypes remain housed there. Historically, exported holotypes consistently outnumbered retained holotypes on a decadal basis until the early twenty-first century. Retention was promoted by local scientific capacity, institutional infrastructure, collector involvement in species descriptions, and environmental governance. In contrast, extraction was concentrated in highly endemic regions with limited scientific infrastructure and was associated with taxonomic revisions, socioeconomic interest, and disparities in political stability and colonial history. Appropriation of foreign holotypes was greatest in countries with high research investment, strong environmental governance, and historical geopolitical influence. Main conclusionsGlobal patterns of holotype circulation reflect a persistent geography of scientific inequality. The distribution of taxonomic reference material emerges from the interaction of retention, extraction, and appropriation processes, linking local biodiversity discovery to uneven global scientific capacity. Reducing these inequalities will require investments in taxonomic expertise, institutional infrastructure, and governance frameworks that promote more equitable stewardship of biodiversity knowledge and its material foundations.

Tropical forest succession can reorganize biodiversity not only by changing species richness, but also by filtering the functional traits that represent ecological strategies. Harvestmen are highly sensitive to microclimatic and structural changes in Neotropical forests, yet their functional diversity remains poorly explored. We investigated taxonomic and functional diversity of harvestmen in a local scale, an Atlantic Forest remnant in southeastern Brazil containing forest patches at different successional stages. Standardized nocturnal active searches and leaf-litter sampling yielded 384 individuals belonging to 14 morphospecies. Functional diversity was quantified from four morphological traits using Hill numbers (q = 0, 1 and 2), morphofunctional ordination, beta-diversity partitioning and environmental models based on forest-structure variables and PCA-derived gradients. Functional diversity was highest when rare species were weighted equally and declined strongly from q = 0 to q = 2, indicating that uncommon species carried much of the regional morphofunctional variation. Functional alpha diversity was positively associated with taxonomic alpha diversity, and Mantel tests showed that taxonomic and functional dissimilarities among sampling points were significantly correlated. However, formal beta-diversity partitioning refined this interpretation: functional beta diversity was dominated by nestedness-resultant dissimilarity rather than turnover, suggesting that functionally poorer assemblages represented contracted subsets of the regional trait space. Morphofunctional analyses identified compact, robust and long-legged species groups, and environmental models showed that lower vegetation structure, litter depth and forest-maturity gradients significantly influenced functional diversity. These findings indicate that mature, structurally complex Atlantic Forest patches help maintain the full spectrum of harvestman morphofunctional strategies and highlight harvestmen as promising models for trait-based conservation ecology. Graphical Abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=105 SRC="FIGDIR/small/731358v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (53K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1f91597org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1f89aa6org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@7141b8org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@191accc_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG

Native vegetation protection is a key strategy for delivering both biodiversity and climate benefits, and protected areas have been widely adopted to keep tropical biomes standing. Yet deforestation is driven by interrelated environmental and social factors, and the effectiveness of protected areas varies considerably across space. Here, we evaluated the impact of 802 protected and conserved areas in the Brazilian Amazon on preventing vegetation loss and avoiding carbon emissions over the past 40 years using statistical matching to address the location bias of protection. We found that protected areas were effective throughout the study period, reducing the probability of deforestation per km2 by an average of 0.5 percentage points per year. While the Amazon biome lost 14% of its native vegetation between 1986 and 2024, protected areas prevented the deforestation of 290,436 km2, nine times their actual internal loss. They also stored 45,336 Mt of carbon in 2016 (61% of the Amazon stock) and prevented the emission of 7,300 Mt of CO2 by 2024. Deforestation inside the areas and remoteness reduced their impact, while areas that were initially more preserved were more effective. Area size and age had no influence over impact once we analyzed the amount of avoided deforestation per size and age. Impact also varied across Brazilian states, highlighting the role of regional context. All three protection categories (conservation units, indigenous lands, and quilombola territories) showed a positive mean impact, indicating that each, in aggregate, contributes to reducing deforestation. These findings provide robust evidence of the substantial role of Amazonian protected areas in habitat conservation and climate mitigation, while underscoring that this contribution remains undervalued. We advocate for strategically expanding protection to areas of greatest potential impact, and for securing adequate funding to ensure protected areas can fulfill that potential.

A core aim of ex situ conservation is to represent wild genetic diversity in managed living collections. For the climate-threatened tropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) flora of northeast Australia, an ex situ metacollection of plants and seeds has been established by the Tropical Mountain Plant Science (TroMPS) project. In this study we used reduced-representation sequencing (DArTseq) of wild, herbarium, and ex situ material alongside provenance information for ten species, to pursue two central aims: to characterise landscape-scale genetic structure across species' ranges, and to evaluate how well the assembled metacollections represent that wild diversity. Analyses revealed consistent patterns of genetic differentiation among mountain top populations across multiple species, reflecting the isolating influence of lowland gaps between upland habitats, with the degree of differentiation varying among species. These results provide the first genetic baseline for Australian TMCF flora and reinforce the importance of treating individual mountain top populations as distinct units for conservation management. Additionally, the project provided valuable insights into the logistical challenges of coordinated multi-institutional collecting, informing strategies for metacollection design more broadly. Evaluation of the metacollection revealed both strengths and gaps in representation across species, providing an evidence base to refine the current holdings and guide future targeted collecting to strengthen their long-term conservation value.

The Natura 2000 network for protected areas is one of Europes main tool to address the loss of Biodiversity. Voluntary commitments of all 27 Member States aim for an extension to 30% of the European land and sea area by 2030. Despite the substantial efforts towards improving declining species and habitats across the continent and the limited success in measured improvements of biodiversity trends in the protected areas, the potential issue of fragmentation and configuration of the documented Natura 2000 sites has not been analysed in depth. This study presents an analysis of the full Natura 2000 data set of terrestrial and marine protected areas in Europe, to which extent documented sites are split up into smaller fragments, how their spatial configuration and shape might mitigate or invite edge effects, and which edge effects might be expected based on the surrounding land cover and land use matrix. Our results show a substantial fragmentation of the network, with four times more individual patches than recorded sites, and 75% of these patches being smaller than 1 km2. Across four size categories between smaller than 1 km2 and larger than 100 km2, about a quarter of patches show a spatial configuration that is likely to cause substantial edge effects due to a suboptimal ratio between area and perimeter. At the same time, many of the smallest patches are surrounded by a large share of sealed surfaces and agricultural areas within a 500m radius. Considering fragmentation and edge effects in future reporting, monitoring and planning of additional designations and restoration activities could close an important gap in understanding causes for continuing declines of Europes biodiversity and highlight pathways to mitigate them.

The global spread of invasive insects poses serious ecological and economic threats to forest ecosystems. Euwallacea fornicatus and E. perbrevis are cryptic ambrosia beetles native to Southeast Asia that have invaded multiple regions worldwide, damaging diverse woody hosts through gallery formation and fungal symbiont inoculation. We compiled confirmed and novel occurrence records to describe their global distributions, reconstruct invasion histories and likely origins using mitochondrial COI phylogenies, and compare their potential distributions through models based on bioclimatic variables. Euwallacea fornicatus has expanded rapidly over the past decades, establishing in North America (2003), Israel (2009), South Africa (2016), South America (2020), Australia (2021), Europe (2022) and Turkey (2024). In contrast, E. perbrevis has an earlier but slower invasion history, with establishments in Hawaii (1918), Central America (1979), Oceania (1982), and North America (2004). Phylogenetic analyses revealed at least six independent introductions for each species. Euwallacea fornicatus primarily originated from native populations in China, Taiwan and Vietnam, whereas E. perbrevis from Indonesia and Thailand, with additional introductions from unknown sources. Secondary spread from invaded regions is also likely. Distribution models indicated distinct climatic niches. Euwallacea fornicatus tolerates broader thermal ranges and drier conditions, enabling establishment from subtropical to temperate regions, whereas E. perbrevis appears restricted to tropical climates. Only 32% of predicted suitable habitat overlapped, indicating low coexistence potential. The broader climatic tolerance and faster recent spread of E. fornicatus highlights a higher invasion risk and greater management challenges. These findings provide key insights to strengthen biosecurity strategies aimed at preventing further spread. Key messageO_LIWe updated the global distribution and likely invasion routes of two cryptic ambrosia beetles. C_LIO_LIWe identified multiple independent and secondary introductions worldwide. C_LIO_LIWe revealed distinct climatic niches and limited habitat overlap. C_LIO_LIWe showed higher invasion risk for E. fornicatus due to broader climatic tolerance. C_LIO_LIWe identified high-risk regions for surveillance based on climate suitability. C_LI

Habitat fragmentation disrupts metapopulation dynamics by altering environmental conditions and constraining demographic processes critical for persistence and recruitment. In the dry Afromontane forests of northern Ethiopia, we investigated how natural and anthropogenic drivers affect seedlings, saplings, and mature tree dynamics of Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata across 34 patches. We used dynamic occurrence models to quantify effects of patch area, altitude, browsing, and disturbance. Our results indicate that high disturbance reduces seedling occurrence probability lower disturbance sites has seedling in 30% of survey plots, high disturbance would bring this down to 10% (median = -1.322, 95% CI: -2.703 to -0.283). Disturbance makes seedling less likely to persist, while large patch size help seedling persists (median = -0.93, 9 5 % CrI -1.87 - -0.02). For mature individuals, disturbance was the only significant predictor of occurrence probability, suggesting greater resistance to environmental and spatial variability compared to earlier life stages. These findings emphasize that while mature trees display resilience, the successful regeneration of Olea europaea is constrained by disturbance, but current level of browsing is not a threat. Management strategies for conservation should prioritise reducing disturbance through community engagement and forest stewardship to enhance regeneration potential and ensure long-term population viability.

BackgroundA structural governance failure sits at the intersection of international biodiversity law and the digital genomics revolution. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Nagoya Protocol on Access and Benefit-Sharing (ABS) were designed to ensure that countries of biological origin share equitably in commercial benefits from their genetic resources. Critically, these instruments apply exclusively to non-human genetic resources: plants, animals, fungi, and microbiota. Human genetic resources are deliberately excluded from the CBD and Nagoya ABS framework and are governed separately through bioethics instruments, including the World Health Organization (WHO) framework and the Declaration of Helsinki. This study focuses on non-human digital sequence information (DSI), nucleotide and protein sequence data derived from non-human organisms deposited in open-access databases, which underpins industries generating over USD 1.56 trillion in annual revenue. Africa, hosting approximately 25% of global terrestrial species and nine of the worlds 36 biodiversity hotspots, provides a disproportionate share of the genetic resources from which non-human DSI is derived, yet receives negligible monetary returns because digitisation severs the traceability chain that ABS governance requires. Human genomic data is presented here solely as a secondary indicator of Africas broader infrastructure; it does not constitute the legal basis for Africas modelled allocation share under the Cali Fund. ObjectivesThis study systematically characterises (i) Africas non-human biodiversity endowment as the basis for Cali Fund claims; (ii) ABS governance readiness across 54 African Union (AU) member states; (iii) the commercial trajectories of non-human DSI-dependent industries and projected Cali Fund benefit-sharing flows; and (iv) Africas human genomic representation as a secondary infrastructure indicator, explicitly distinguished from the non-human DSI benefit-sharing argument. MethodsA structured evidence synthesis was conducted following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 reporting elements, where applicable to a secondary data analysis design. Literature was searched across PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and official repositories of the CBD, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The search was restricted to January 2022 - April 2026 to capture post-Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF) literature. A total of 412 records were identified before screening; 34 peer-reviewed articles and 19 institutional documents met all inclusion criteria. Quantitative Cali Fund scenario modelling used the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) and KPMG (2024) non-human DSI sector revenue baseline (CBD/WGDSI/2/2/Add.2). The 12.5% net profit margin is a cross-sector proxy from that study; actual margins vary by sector. Africas modelled allocation share (20-25%) is the authors analytical construct based on Africas non-human species richness and hotspot share; it is not an internationally agreed formula. ResultsAfricas non-human biodiversity endowment is exceptional: 25% of terrestrial species, nine of 36 biodiversity hotspots, and the worlds second-largest tropical forest system. Non-human DSI from African genetic resources is a critical input to industries generating USD 1.56 trillion annually, yet Africa contributes a marginal and unmeasured fraction of International Nucleotide Sequence Database Collaboration (INSDC) sequences. As a secondary indicator, 94.48% of genome-wide association study (GWAS) participants as of 2024 were of European ancestry (Corpas et al., 2025); this human genomic data is presented for contextual illustration only and is not the basis for Africas Cali Fund modelled allocation share. Zero African Union member states have enacted legislation explicitly covering non-human DSI in their ABS framework. Africas modelled allocation share ranges from USD 312 million (Scenario A, 20% weight) to USD 5.83 billion (Scenario C, 25% weight) annually. ConclusionsAfrica is among the most biologically rich continents on Earth for non-human life, yet structurally excluded from the benefit-sharing framework the CBD intended to create. The Cali Fund represents the first mechanism capable of correcting this at scale. Realising Africas modelled allocation share requires urgent legislative reform, institutional capacity investment, sequencing infrastructure development, and a coordinated African position at COP17 scheduled in Yerevan, October 2026.

To prevent species extinctions, targeted action must focus on areas of threatened biodiversity facing intense human pressures. This objective is even more important in the run-up to 2030, the target date to conserve 30% of lands and waters globally. Conservation Imperatives (unprotected terrestrial sites that harbour rare, range-restricted, and threatened species) are critical to preventing imminent species losses. To prioritize among the 16,825 Conservation Imperatives Sites spanning 1.64 million km2, we ranked each site using a prioritization framework based on four criteria: number of threatened species per site; irreplaceability of the site; the proportion of an ecoregions remaining habitat contained in the site; and conversion pressure. Our approach prioritizes 1,667 sites representing 501,426 km2, or 0.37% of Earths terrestrial surface, most in need of urgent protection, with 87.34% of these sites occurring in 20 countries and in 250 ecoregions. This prioritization directly addresses the concern that protected areas must be targeted to protect endangered species, habitats and populations: 33.46% of the prioritized Conservation Imperatives Sites scored higher in irreplaceability than 90% of existing protected areas. Additionally, 51.53% are within 2.5 km2 of an existing protected area, making extending protection or restoring connectivity more feasible. Targeting conservation actions, especially in this small set of countries and ecoregions identified here, would contribute "high quality" areas for biodiversity as part of reaching the 30% coverage target by 2030.

The ongoing decline in biodiversity highlights the need for understanding the causes of population changes. This study uses 25-year, large-scale monitoring dataset to investigate the influence of climate and landscape structure on the annual population growth rates of 84 bird species across Poland. Our methodological framework involves the spatiotemporal decomposition of these environmental drivers to decouple demographic effects of long-term carrying capacities from the short-term effects of environmental perturbations. Using species-specific demographic models followed by a community-wide meta-analysis, we evaluated how individual species responses scale up to shape community-level dynamics. The results reveal significant variation in species-specific responses to individual drivers. At the community level, our findings suggest that bird populations are mainly regulated by the long-term spatial constraints rather than short-term disturbances. Persistent environmental heterogeneity had the strongest positive demographic effect on birds, followed by temperature, forest dominance over croplands, and precipitation. In contrast, rapid temporal shifts in environmental heterogeneity and precipitation anomalies negatively affected population growth, whereas urbanisation consistently exerted a negative effect across both spatiotemporal dimensions. Our results highlight the significance of protecting existing heterogeneous and ecotonal habitats, as well as the need to incorporate features that enhance habitat heterogeneity into urban development. Article impact statementPreserving heterogeneous habitats is essential for the conservation of bird populations.

Urbanization often reduces local biodiversity, yet cities can maintain surprisingly high total species richness at broader spatial scales. This paradox has led to the "cities-as-bioarks" hypothesis, which proposes that protected remnant habitats within cities can function as refuges for native species. However, most evidence supporting this hypothesis comes from higher latitudes, and it remains unclear whether remnant habitats in low-latitude cities can serve the same role. We surveyed ant communities across 60 sites in Atlanta, Georgia (USA), spanning streetscapes, manicured parks, and forested parks, to test whether relatively undisturbed urban forests support the highest native diversity. Contrary to the bioark prediction, native species richness was lowest in forested parks and highest in habitats with intermediate disturbance. Community composition varied with habitat structure, but surface temperature was not a significant predictor of richness or composition. Instead, native abundance and richness declined strongly with increasing abundance of the invasive Asian needle ant, Brachyponera chinensis, a forest-adapted invader capable of dominating relatively intact habitats. In contrast, two other invasive species, the red imported fire ant Solenopsis invicta and the Argentine ant Linepithema humile, were largely restricted to more disturbed habitats and had comparatively weaker associations with native diversity loss. These findings refine the bioark hypothesis by demonstrating that habitat protection alone may be insufficient to conserve insect diversity in warmer regions, and instead must be paired with active invasive species management.

Controlling invasive species is a global conservation priority but is typically resource-limited, necessitating strategies to optimize control. Spatial prioritization methods can improve the efficiency of invader control by quantifying the benefits, costs, and risks of alternative intervention strategies. Yet prioritization designs are sensitive to the distinction between protecting native populations that are currently sympatric with invaders versus safeguarding presently allopatric native populations by preventing invader expansion. Gaining a better understanding of this distinction stands to improve our ability to prioritize the management of invaders whose distributions--and thus impacts on native species--are dynamic. We asked how prioritization designs addressing current versus future invader threats affected tradeoffs among focal species protection, biodiversity conservation, disturbance risk, and overlap with existing conservation infrastructure. As a case study, we spatially prioritized population control of invasive barred owls (Strix varia) in the northwestern US. We found that distinguishing between current versus future threats posed by barred owls to the native spotted owl (S. occidentalis) strongly mediated whether invader control stood to benefit native at-risk animal communities. Furthermore, this distinction also affected the degree to which population control would overlap with fire risk and federally protected forests, both of which plausibly affect the viability and success of conservation action. These results thus illustrate that deciding to prioritize the control of invaders based on their current versus future impacts on native species can dramatically affect the distribution and characteristics of high-priority areas for management. Our findings also directly inform control of barred owls in the northwestern US: we found that prioritizing future threats to spotted owls could protect at-risk amphibian communities from novel barred owl predation, but that high fire risk and minimal protected forest may complicate implementation. Thus, in both our system and more broadly, spatial prioritization methods are an important tool for quantitative, reproducible, and successful invader control.

Aim: To forecast near-future arrivals of non-native terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates at the regional level. Location: Global (geopolitical regions worldwide, including countries and main administrative divisions). Methods: We compiled first regional record data and assembled functional and macroecological variables for 1,931 non-native vertebrate species. For each region, we identified recently arrived non-native species using retrospective windows of thirty and twenty years ending in 2015 (1986-2015; 1996-2015). We then fitted region-specific random-forest models classifying recently arrived species versus those not yet arrived using as predictors: (i) harmonised species traits (e.g., habitat, diet, body size and native-range attributes) and (ii) spread history, capturing time since first record elsewhere. Predictive performance was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, comparing full models with trait-only and spread-only variants. We also assessed relationships between predictive accuracy, predictor importance, and the geographic positioning and trade connectedness of regions. Finally, we predicted region-specific probabilities of arrival for species not yet recorded. Results: Forecasting accuracy was consistently high across regions and taxa, with AUC values above 0.9 in more than half of the focal regions. Full models substantially outperformed models using either predictor set alone, and spread-history-only models typically exceeded trait-only models. Relative importance of spread-history predictors declined with geographic distance to the focal region, whereas predictability was lower in highly trade-connected regions. Predicted near-future high-risk arrivals were dominated by birds and freshwater fishes and showed strong regional structuring. A small set of species ranked highly across many regions (e.g., birds: Phasianus colchicus, Acridotheres tristis, Amandava amandava, Colinus virginianus, Corvus splendens and Lonchura malacca; fishes: Coregonus peled and Oreochromis mossambicus; mammal: Oryctolagus cuniculus), suggesting substantial unrealised spread potential. Main conclusions: Near-future regional arrivals of non-native vertebrates are predictable from spread history and species traits. This enables scalable, updateable regional watchlists to support prevention, early detection and horizon scanning.

Effective biodiversity conservation requires tools that can identify priority areas under growing human pressures. Building on the concept of global biodiversity hotspots, we present a transparent and repeatable approach to mapping conservation priorities using data for 33,604 species of terrestrial vertebrates from the IUCN Red List. This framework expands the taxonomic scope of previous efforts and integrates updated information on key human-driven threats to biodiversity. We identify that around 13% of Earths terrestrial surface qualifies as vertebrate conservation hotspots, often shaped by distinct combinations of species groups and threats. These results highlight the need for tailored, context-specific conservation strategies. By providing a robust method to guide spatial prioritization, our work supports more effective implementation of conservation targets in a rapidly changing world.